Trade Analysis 25~31 August 2024

Weekly pullback is expected, aiming of reaching the 25-0% of the weekly range.

Natalia Quinn

Aug 28, 2024 — 2 min read

Weekly Analysis

On a weekly perspective, BTC has successfully closed above the previous long-time high of 69,198.7, confirming that the new high of 73,881.4 is the latest 1-week weak high. As ranges typically do, they tend to move from 100% of the range down to 0%. In this case, we could expect BTC to continue declining, potentially reaching the 0% mark near the 1-week strong low at 38,545.0.

Focusing on the latest weekly range and price action, BTC is technically free to decline and reach the 0% level of the range while still maintaining a bullish stance. In fact, there are various vector candles, demand zones, and fair value gaps (FVG) to watch. I'll personally be looking for some of these levels to be tapped, or even a sweep of the 0% low, before considering building a new long position.

Daily Analysis

From a daily perspective, last week we saw an attempt to break the 1-day strong low, but instead, it resulted in a swing failure pattern (SFP) with a large wick. This could indicate that the objective of the weekly strong low was achieved, and we might expect BTC to reach the daily weak high of the range, set at 73,881.4, once again.

At this stage, we're ranging around the 50% mark of the daily range. We've also observed multiple highs that haven't been taken out, with the objective of preventing the price from breaking out each time.

However, based on recent price action, not only is BTC remaining within the 50% mark of the daily range, but the volume profile also shows that the price has rejected from the Point of Control (POC). This could indicate that BTC may need to decline further, possibly revisiting the 0% level of the daily range, producing another Swing Failure Pattern (SFP), or even approaching the weekly strong low to gather enough liquidity and momentum to push up and target the weekly high of the range once more. For this scenario to play out, it's crucial that the daily range does not close below the 0% level. Rest assured, in next week's trade analysis, we'll review the price action and provide an update on this development.

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