Trade Analysis Monday, BTCUSD September 16th, 2024

Following last week’s monetary and market activities, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by approximately 15%. Let’s break down what happened and what to expect this week.

Key Monetary Policy Events Recap:

1. Federal Reserve (Fed): The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for patience, indicating that it will take longer than expected to confidently return inflation to the 2% target1.
   
2. European Central Bank (ECB): The ECB also held its interest rates steady. However, there were discussions about potential future rate cuts due to a dip in inflation, which fell to 2.2% in August2.
   
3. Bank of England (BoE): The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the Bank Rate at 5.25%. The decision was made by a narrow majority, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic growth3.

Weekly Perspective:
Bitcoin is still ranging near the 50% mark of the weekly range, with market indecision continuing. Unfortunately, we’ll need to wait for a significant move, either towards the 25% or 75% of the range, for clearer direction.

Analyzing the weekly volume profile, BTC has again moved back inside and closed above the weekly volume low, with the possibility of moving higher. It could be targeting the Point of Control (POC) of the volume profile or even the high of the volume profile. However, this would require a major bullish break of structure (BOS), which will demand substantial capital to shift the current trend.

Daily prospective:

Currently, BTC is holding below the 50% level of the daily range. Last week, it tapped into liquidity below the 25% level, and this week it has started above that threshold. This could indicate a potential target at the 50% level, where resistance is expected. Should it surpass this level, the 75% or even 100% levels of the daily range could become the next targets. However, such moves would also signify a bullish BOS, marking a shift from the bearish trend to bullish.

From a daily volume profile view, BTC is still ranging below the Weekly Volume Profile Low but has managed to close above the low. This opens the possibility of targeting the Volume Profile POC, though, once again, this would signal a bullish BOS.

4-Hour Perspective:
On the 4-hour chart, BTC is in a bullish scenario, having successfully formed a bullish BOS by breaking a significant high and closing above it. We can now expect a potential pullback to the 50% mark of the range, which aligns with a possible 4-hour demand zone.

Outlook for the Week:

Following the 4-hour structure and anticipating a potential pullback, BTC could accumulate momentum for long positions targeting major highs on the daily and weekly timeframes. Multiple monetary policy updates this week are expected to shake the market, and it’s likely that market makers and whales will aim to clear out immature traders to gather liquidity for the next major move.

Trade with caution and remember, this analysis is not financial advice.