Trade Analysis Monday, BTCUSD September 30th, 2024
At this stage, patience is key, and as always, remember to trade cautiously as the market unfolds. These scenarios offer potential opportunities depending on how BTC reacts to the key levels mentioned above.
As we head into the last days of September, Bitcoin continues to exhibit strength across multiple time frames, showing promising signs for further upward movement. Let’s dive into the key levels and scenarios to watch this week.
Weekly Time Frame
Bitcoin successfully closed above last week's candle, marking another milestone and reinforcing the possibility of new highs on the horizon. This bullish close signals continued momentum in the market, giving traders confidence in further upward movement.
Monthly Time Frame
At the time of this article’s publication, we still have 17 hours left until the monthly candle closes. A close above last month’s high would further solidify the bullish sentiment, providing a strong signal that BTC could be headed for even greater highs. This will be a key level to watch as the month draws to a close.
Short-Term Structure: 15-Minute Supply Zone
Yesterday, we identified a local break of structure on the lower time frame, followed by the creation of a 15-minute supply zone. This zone was tapped during the Asian session, leading to a temporary dump. Despite this, the market remains healthy overall, with the 4-hour low set at 62,600. Given the current bull market, this 4H low is expected to hold strong.
Current 4-Hour Analysis
At the moment, BTC is hovering around the 50% mark of the 4-hour range. Personally, I am holding off on trading at this level. I prefer to wait and see if the price moves down to the <30% or even within the 0-25% range before making any decisions.
Ideal scenarios (yet to be confirmed) - NFA
We’ve also identified fresh demand and supply zones, which could provide further insight into potential movements. Should BTC fail to close above the Volume Profile Low (VP Low), we may continue to see further downside pressure. However, if the price closes inside the VP Low, there is a strong possibility of targeting the Point of Control (POC) within the Volume Profile.
Bearish Scenario to Watch
In the event of a significant dump, if BTC closes below the 4H low at 62,600 with a full candle body close, this would signify a bearish break of structure on the 4-hour time frame. Should this occur, I expect BTC to move lower in the short term.
However, even if we tap into the 62,600 level and do not close below it, the bullish momentum could resume, taking us higher. If we do see a 4-hour close below 62,600, there’s still the possibility of a pullback before a larger downward move, potentially revisiting the 49K level (Weekly Weak Low).
